A neural model of the dynamics of world oil prices was created by the Institute of energy strategy (IES) with the participation of specialists from the University of Dubna. It has been running since 2009 and made forecasts that coincide with reality, according to the Russian oil and gas information Agency (ANGI).
The model is based on the search for recurring trends in historical price dynamics, self-learning based on the comparison of retrospective and current trends and the reflection of these trends in the future.
The principle of its operation is based on the frequency of UPS and downs of prices, as well as the repeatability of the structure of these fluctuations in the form of appropriate combinations.
This model avoids numerous, multidirectional and based on unstable factors of price forecasts, the press service of the Ministry of energy reported.
With the help of the IES model, price peaks of 2008-2009, oil market failures of 2015 were predicted, as well as the coincidence of forecasts and the real dynamics of oil prices in 2009-2018 were obtained.
According to the model prediction of IES, until the middle of 2020 it is expected to lower prices for Brent crude to $ 50. In the future, up to 2026, the price dynamics will be less stable-if the price is projected to rise by 2021, then by 2023 it is likely to fall to $ 60, and then it is possible to return to $ 85-90 by the end of 2024.
The vision of the further dynamics of the quotes of the IES generally coincides with the forecast of the Ministry of energy of Russia. As earlier noted by the Minister of energy Alexander Novak at a meeting on the development of the Russian oil industry at the head of the Russian government Dmitry Medvedev, in the long term, the price of oil will drop to about $ 50 per barrel. According to the Minister, this is due to the likely decline in global demand for oil with growing competition among its producers.