Global liquid hydrocarbon production in 2025 will increase by 1.55 million barrels per day - to 104.35 million b/d, which is 170 thousand b/d more than the forecast in the previous report of the US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), Interfax reports.
In 2026, the EIA now expects production of 105.14 million b/d (0.8 million b/d more than this year), while previously it expected a growth rate of 1.3 million b/d - to 105.43 million b/d.
"While the recent OPEC+ announcement added near-term supply to the oil balances in our forecast, we have further revised our Kazakhstan production forecast to accurately reflect recent Tengiz production levels. We have also revised our forecast for Brazil as the Bacalhau FPSO vessel is expected to begin operations earlier than we had previously assumed in our forecast," the document says.
At the same time, the EIA believes that despite the third consecutive month of accelerated production quota increases announced, OPEC+ members will produce below their current target to limit the growth of global oil inventories and try to support falling prices.
Thus, the forecast for oil production in Kazakhstan has been increased by 120 thousand bpd in 2025 - to 2.19 million bpd and by 70 thousand bpd in 2026 - to 2.2 million bpd. Brazil's 2025 forecast has been increased by 130,000 b/d to 4.5 million, in 2026 - by 170 thousand b/d to 4.74 million b/d.
"We expect OPEC+ to increase crude oil production by 0.3 million b/d this year, compared with a cut of 1.4 million b/d in 2024, before increasing by 0.5 million b/d in 2026. We expect non-OPEC+ countries to contribute to global liquid fuels production growth this year, increasing output by 1.1 million b/d," the report said.
