IEA Raises Estimate for Oil Demand Growth in 2025
12:25 14.02.2025 4848
Global oil demand in 2025 will grow by 1.104 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last year, according to the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In January, the IEA forecast this figure at 1.054 million bpd. Thus, the agency's experts increased their estimate for demand growth by 50 thousand bpd.
At the same time, the agency notes that the fourth quarter of 2024 demonstrated the highest growth rates last year - by 1.35 million bpd compared to the same period in 2023.
"Cold December weather forced more oil to be used for heating, against the backdrop of a weak base in Q4 2023, when air temperatures were extremely mild. Consumption was additionally stimulated by lower oil prices on an annualized basis," IEA analysts note in the report, emphasizing that the end of 2024 set the trend for higher consumption growth dynamics in 2025. The agency also notes the decreasing influence of China on the growth of global oil consumption. At the end of 2024, domestic consumption in this country increased by only 150 thousand bpd (about 20% of the global growth structure) compared to the average annual growth of 600 thousand bpd over the past ten years. The increase last year was primarily due to the petrochemical sector, while demand for motor fuels, according to IEA analysts, has reached a plateau in the country.
The largest contribution to the growth of global oil consumption in 2024 was made by other Asian countries that are not members of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) - about 300 thousand b/d, India - 200 thousand b/d, Middle East countries - 110 thousand b/d, Brazil - 90 thousand b/d. According to IEA experts, in 2025, the dominance of non-OECD countries in the structure of growth in global oil demand will continue, while oil consumption in OECD countries will continue to stagnate.
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