The demand for oil on the world market by the beginning of the 2030s will begin to decline, - experts

16:06 28.05.2021 3707

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The demand for oil on the world market will begin to decline by the early 2030s, which means a reduction in oil budget revenues. This was stated by the head of the Accounting Chamber of the Russian Federation A. Kudrin, reports Neftegaz.RU.

Kudrin noted that in the late 2020s-early 2030s, the demand for oil in the world will begin to decline, while at the same time the trend for companies to become carbon neutral will gain momentum. By the 2040s, many countries will reduce their CO2 emissions by more than 2 times. The share of oil and gas revenues as a percentage of GDP and in the budget will steadily fall all the time.

The decline in oil demand in the world is predicted by many experts. Thus, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that demand will recover by 2023, and then will grow by 0.7 million barrels per day until 2030, followed by a plateau.

The IEA estimates that demand in advanced economies will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2030.

OPEC believes that the era of oil is over for developed countries, but developing countries will continue to increase their oil consumption. Thanks to this, oil will retain its role as the leading energy carrier in the period up to 2045. But its share in the global energy balance will decline - from 31.5% in 2019 to 30.4% by 2030 and to 28.3% by 2040.

It is noteworthy that many countries are already betting on the development of hydrogen energy. For example, Russia recently proposed to Saudi Arabia to create a working group on the development of hydrogen energy and the development of energy storage technologies. Russia considers the development of cooperation in the field of technologies and investments, including in the hydrogen energy sector, to be an important area of cooperation.

In November 2020, Saudi Arabia announced that it plans to become the largest exporter of hydrogen. The country's large natural gas reserves allow it to produce "blue" hydrogen, a fuel derived from hydrocarbons.  In September 2020, the Saudis delivered the world's first batch of "blue" hydrogen, which was converted to ammonia, to Japan.

In turn, Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. built the world's first tanker for the transportation of liquefied hydrogen. It will run on the route Australia - Japan and back. The first batch of liquefied hydrogen from Australia is due to arrive in Japan in the spring of 2022. Kawasaki Heavy plans to build 80 tankers to transport 9 million tons of liquefied hydrogen.

It is worth noting that recently, President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, speaking at the UN Global Round Table, announced Turkmenistan's initiatives to develop low-carbon energy and hydrogen fuel.

In the same month, the head of state instructed the leadership of the fuel and energy complex of our country to study the possibilities of developing hydrogen energy. During a recent visit to the plant for the production of environmentally friendly gasoline from natural gas in the Akhal Velayat, the President stressed that hydrogen is the fuel of the future, the production of which is extremely important in the light of the global community's concern about climate change.

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